Baillieu edges closer to victory

The chances of a hung parliament seemed less likely by Sunday evening as the Coalition edged closer to forming government in Victoria.

The seat of Bentleigh is all that Ted Baillieu needs to secure the magic number of 45 seats and claim victory over the state's longest running Labor government led since 2007 by John Brumby.

A dramatic swing against Labor has cut down long-standing MPs with the election results expected to see as many as 13 seats lost.
Melbourne’s outer suburbs, particularly those taking the brunt of Victoria’s population growth punished Labor last night.

The seats lost include: Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Carrum, Seymour, South Barwon, Forest Hill, Burwood, Prahran and Mitcham.

In the tightest election since 1999 which saw Jeff Kennett ousted from power, there was a clear swing away from the Government to the Coalition -- mainly in Melbourne's east and south-eastern suburbs.

Former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield lost the Geelong seat of South Barwon to the Coalition.

The loss ripped through Labor’s true believers in Geelong, as Michael Crutchfield, who held South Barwon by a lean 2.3 per cent, made way for Greek Australian, Liberal Andrew Katos.

Labor's losses in the frontbench include Tony Robinson, Consumer Affairs Minister and Maxine Morand, Children and Early Childhood Development Minister.
Michael Gidley removed Ms Morand in Mt Waverley and in Gembrook, the Liberals won with a 6.9 per cent swing against Labor’s Tammy Lobato.

In Forest Hill, Labor’s Kristie Marshall all but conceded to the Liberal’s Neil Angus Saturday night after a strange self-imposed media gag earlier in the day.

The biggest swing against Labor was in Carrum, in metropolitan Melbourne, which brought the seat to the Liberal’s Donna Bauer with a massive 10.3 per cent swing against Jenny Lindell.

The Brumby Government’s response to the 2009 devastating bush fires reaped its own reward with a 10.1 per cent swing against Labor’s Ben Hardman in the seat of Seymour - an electorate covering areas such as Marysville and Kinglake – delivering the seat to Cindy McLeish.

Long-term sitting Labor MP Bob Stensholt in Burwood lost his seat to the Liberal’s Graham Watt with another extraordinary 10.2 per cent swing.

In Prahran things could not have been worse for Labor with Clem Newton-Brown taking the seat from Tony Lupton with almost 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

Any expectation a Labor government may have of securing the services of an independent were dashed when the state’s only independent Craig Ingram accepted defeat ahead of a looming avalanche win by the National’s Tim Bell in the state's east.

Labor also lost crucial support in the blue-collar belt of Frankston, reflecting the changing demography of the area, with a 6.8 per cent swing to Geoff Shaw ousting Labor’s Alistain Harkness.

The ALP also failed to hold Mordialloc, with Janice Munt losing out to Lorraine Wreford.
Contrary to media expectations the Greens failed to win a single lower house seat.

Now the outcome of Bentleigh will decide the tense contest. The Liberals were ahead with 51.1 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

The election result will also be complicated by a mass of 768,000 votes lodged before yesterday through postal and pre-poll votes.