Ted Baillieu is a keen swimmer but the tide turned against the former Premier this week, leaving the state’s Coalition government gasping for breath.
Within hours of stepping down as Premier, his successor Dr Denis Napthine denied speculation that Mr Baillieu was pushed, saying his predecessor believed he had lost crucial party room support.
After the shock resignation – triggered by backbencher Geoff Shaw’s departure from the Liberal ranks – Napthine told reporters “Ted Baillieu was not knifed … he felt that he didn’t have the support that he needed and he therefore made the decision of his own volition.”
Sworn in late on Wednesday, Dr Napthine, a former Kennett government minister and opposition leader, strove to deny that he was a stopgap leader.
Baillieu’s resignation follows a string of negative polls and ongoing crises, the latest being the emergence of secret tape recordings over the police command crisis involving his former chief adviser Tony Nutt.
Reaction from Greek Australian parliamentarians was swift, with the Opposition sensing blood.
“Ted Baillieu was a nice man,” Jenny Mikakos MP told Neos Kosmos “but he was ineffective and had little to show for two years in government.
“The catalyst for his removal by his Liberal party colleagues was the scandal surrounding the secret tape-recorded conversations … and the departure of Geoff Shaw,” said the Labor member for Northern Metropolitan Region.
“Unless Deputy Premier Ryan and others are also removed, the stench will remain over this government.”
Ms Mikakos described Dr Napthine as a recycled temporary leader who would be retained” until young Matthew Guy finds himself a lower house seat”.
In a show of bi-partisan generosity, Labor MP John Pandazopoulos said that in Ted Baillieu’s resignation, “we have lost a good friend of multiculturalism and the Greeks,” adding that his successor Dr Napthine “in 22 years in Parliament hasn’t shown much initiative or interest in these areas.”
The member for Dandenong added: “The captain has changed but it’s the same bad team that has cut hospital and school funding.”
Mr Baillieu has indicated that he does not wish to be given a ministerial portfolio and the arts ministry, racing and major projects portfolios will be retained by the new Premier.
Asked to comment on the situation facing his government, Nicholas Kotsiras, Minister for Multicultural Affairs and Citizenship told Neos Kosmos that Premier Napthine had the full support of the parliamentary party and was committed to leading the Victorian Coalition Government to the November 2014 election.
“The Premier and the Victorian Coalition Government are committed to delivering critical infrastructure, essential services and providing strong leadership for all Victorians,” said the Minister.
From the backbenches, Andrew Katos, Liberal member for South Barwon told Neos Kosmos:
“It shows that 24 hours is a long time in politics. I certainly didn’t wake up on Wednesday morning thinking we’d have a new Premier by the end of the day.
“Ted Baillieu felt he didn’t have the support he need as leader and made his decision,” said Mr Katos, who denied that factional infighting led to the resignation.
“We don’t have anything like the organised factional system that the Labor Party does.
“In any party you’re going to have people who like some personalities and dislike others.”
Meanwhile political analyst Dr Nick Economou maintains Baillieu’s exit is the result of more than personal differences in a government with a hairline majority.
“Rationally Baillieu’s authority in the party ought to have been strengthened by the election victory in 2010, but the opposite has happened, which makes me think that there are very deep factional divisions within the Victorian Liberal Party.
“These divisions are so deep, and run through the party organisation as well as the parliamentary wing, that they are prepared to jeopardise government in order to play out the things that divide them.”
Dr Economou told Neos Kosmos that the crisis the Liberal government now faces is one of its own making and a result of massive indiscipline.
“They’ve lost sight of the fact that really what this is about is staying in government. This is one of the consequences of having fixed parliamentary terms – that these politicians think they’ve got scope to play these sorts of games before the election’s on.
“It’s not uncommon for governments in their first term to run into difficulty over policy debate, but to be fair to Baillieu, Victoria’s economic situation has deteriorated significantly, not all of it is the fault of the state government by any stretch of the imagination.
“Governments can weather those sorts of storms – if they remain united and disciplined, but the intriguing thing about all this, is where the pressure against Baillieu was coming from.”
Dr Economou – a senior lecturer in the School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University – believes that whilst the government’s on the ropes, it still has a chance of avoiding being knocked out at the next election.
“They have to hope that Napthine’s elevation to the leadership does two things; one, that it placates the internal tensions that are going on, but I have my doubts about that, and the second is that Napthine cuts through with the public in a way that Baillieu couldn’t.”
“But there’s a sense of a perfect storm forming around all this stuff – its not just the policy failures or the policing stuff, it’s also those polls that showed the unpopularity of the government.
“If Napthine can turn those around then he could consolidate his position, but I tell you what, I wouldn’t hold my breath.”