A buyers’ market

Official figures mask impact of crisis on Greek property values


According to a recent report by Eurobank EFG, property prices in Greece have fallen 14 per cent from their peak in 2008, but real estate analysts in Athens have told Neos Kosmos this week, that bank-supplied figures mask the true reduction in property values.

While the domestic market is at a standstill, the industry says interest from beyond the eurozone, including Canada, the USA and particularly Australia, has remained.

Mr Yannis Perrotis, Managing Director of Athens property company CBRE Atria told Neos Kosmos this week that over the past twelve months, property values have dropped on average by around 20 per cent in all categories.

“In residential we’ve had a drop in the region of 40 per cent in Athens, from the peak in 2008 to today, and in retail properties, of even more,” says Mr Perrotis, adding that the discrepancy with the official figures announced by Eurobank EFG was a result of the banking system wanting to put a more positive spin on the situation.

“The banks are not independent, they have an interest to say the drop is much smaller, because their loans would be heavily hit if they said something like this. If you go out in the market you will see what the real drops are.”

Since the 2008 peak, Mr Perrotis, whose company specialises in corporate clients, adds that in some cases, corrections to capital values to date have reached 70% in retail, 50% in office and 40% in residential.

“This drop was initially more evident in retail properties, while office properties followed and residential values were the last to drop.

With three and a half years of falling markets, Mr Perrotis says the recent deepening of the economic crisis has taken a heavy toll.

“The drop has accelerated in the past few months because the banks have entered a phase of extreme lack of liquidity, property tax has increased, so people have basically stopped buying.”

On the upside, CBRE Atria’s MD says that better times are around the corner.

“My personal view is that we’ll see the end of the downward cycle as soon as the Greek debt restructuring is finalised, either for good or for bad.

“Our opinion is that in the next 12 months numerous investment opportunities will appear, with very attractive terms.”

Mr Ian Pollard, director of real estate company Hidden Greece, a UK owned but Athens-based business, traces the most recent decline in values to the rolling out of the Greek government’s austerity program.

“As it bit deeper, the home market collapsed,” says Mr Pollard, “the domestic market in Athens is now virtually dead. There are estate agents who have not sold a single property for over 12 months.

“Uncertainty, especially recently, has been the great deterrent to overseas buyers with the result that owners are now beginning to reduce prices drastically.”

With Hidden Greece’s portfolio targeted at overseas investors, Mr Pollard says the traditional European markets for buyers of Greek property have dried up.

“The UK is fairly deeply affected by recession and the eurozone countries are part of the crisis and waiting for a solution to the Greek problem. There is still interest from Scandinavia, but not as much as there was.

“There is still fairly strong interest from Canada and the USA but in particular from Australia – and not just from within the Greek community in Australia. Australians also seem to be prepared to buy, rather than just stop at the enquiry stage.”

Looking over the precipice of default and leaving the eurozone, Mr Pollard says that Greek owners are looking to the future with unease.

“Owners realise that if Greece leaves the euro and it is replaced by the new Drachma, which have already been printed since last spring, the value of their property could fall by between 30 per cent and 50 per cent as the new currency is devalued.

“It doesn’t matter how the crisis is resolved. There will be such a sigh of relief when it is over and it could lead to prices firming up rapidly,” says Mr Pollard.

“Whilst all the logical arguments may say ‘wait before you buy’, the contrary argument could prove to be the winner. Greece is too beautiful a country for its property market not to start recovering rapidly at the first sign of the restoration of normality.”

With the Aussie dollar remaining strong against the euro, with the exchange rate hovering over 80 euro cents, for Australian investors wanting to buy property in Greece, there may not be a better opportunity.