Greece is bracing for a bumpy road ahead, as Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to call for early elections on 24 June is bound to affect the already difficult relationship between the neighbouring countries.
The Turkish president has been employing continuously alarming nationalist rhetoric for the past few months and analysts believe that this is going to escalate, within the context of an election period. Erdogan’s convergence with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party of Devlet Bahceli troubles both Athens and Nicosia, which see this as a sign that Turkey is going to maintain its aggressive stance in the Aegean and Cyprus region, even if this is for reasons of political gain for the governing party.
Another issue of concern is the fact that the same attitude is embraced by the Kemalist opposition, which often accuses Erdogan of being too soft and conceding to Greece regarding the Aegean islets dispute.
The Turkish President has responded to these accusations by taking a harder stance against Greece. In his recent visit to Athens, he went on to question the validity of the Lausanne Treaty, claiming that it should be reconsidered and raising the issue of the Muslim minority of Thrace.
This rhetoric was followed by actions, when Turkish warships recently stopped an Italian research boat from reaching its destination in Greek Cypriot waters. According to some analysts, Erdogan’s strategy of provocation is aimed for domestic consumption mostly, but nobody can safely predict that a conflict will not take place.
Last time that the two countries found themselves on the verge of war in 1996, it took the interference of the US government, their common NATO ally, to prevent escalation – after an incident that already cost the lives of Greek army officers. So the US government has taken a distance, with the country’s ambassador in Greece coming out to express concerns about the danger of an “accident” taking place in the Aegean.