A few days ago the caucus of the Australian Labor Party did what was expected, and replaced Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd. Politics in Australia, and in any other country, is first of all, most of all and above all, about acquiring, salvaging and exercising power – regardless of the purpose of this power. The prospect of political survival, let alone the possibility of a turnaround in the electoral fortunes of the government, made enough Labor MPs take the side of Kevin Rudd. If something is surprising in the leadership outcome, it is the number of votes and the level of support that Julia Gillard managed to retain regardless of the dominant nature of politics or the onslaught against her.
Kevin Rudd is back in power and the polls are already indicating a Labor resurgence. Never mind the fact that his opponents and the media are still questioning directly or indirectly his managerial capacities and his narcissistic tendencies. After the announcement of the new government, media, community sectors and political parties are struggling to shape the election agenda. They try to drop or to modify Labor policies in relation to asylum seekers, education reform, carbon dioxide taxation and other issues.
Until the dust of the leadership change disappears within the next few days and the polls pick up the mood of the nation during this coming period, the Prime Minister has no reason to announce a specific date for the election. He can call an election at any time between August 3rd and November 30th. What Rudd needs if he is to change some of the Labor policies as implied by a number of his ministers, is to measure the impact of these changes first. He also needs time to set, to propagate, and to attempt to impose his own agenda. He does not have the time to try to fight on many different battlefronts. He needs to choose one or two issues and then he has to run with them.
With an indifferent electorate, the Australian Electoral Commission is trying to enrol half a million young people who have not done so already with the right to vote. With a misinformed electorate, at least in regards to major election issues such as asylum seekers, Kevin Rudd and Labor will have difficulties to successfully raise or defend their own election agenda. Also, you cannot win an election only on one or two issues, especially when these issues are, for example, education reform or the implementation of the National Disability Scheme. Most probably Rudd and his government will be forced to react and to make policies on the run, as issues and agendas are set by media, opposition parties and others. If this is the case, all that Labor can hope for most probably is a defeat but with better margins than those under Julia Gillard’s leadership.
If Kevin Rudd is to call an election earlier rather than later than September 14th the most probable scenario will be a defeat. Unless something extraordinary happens, and this must not be excluded, although it is the exception and not the rule, a Labor defeat is the most probable outcome even if an election date is chosen for after September 14th.
Given that Rudd and Labor are cornered, the possibility of defeat and the day after the election must be in the minds of all ALP members, supporters and voters. For Labor, what is happening silently right now around Australia in various pre-selection battle fronts is of the outmost importance. Even though the scope and the impact of these battles is less significant than the national election, for Labor and for the sake of the political and democratic health of Australia, these shadow battles are a matter of life and death.
Without excluding a Rudd victory altogether if things go his way, this upcoming election for the ALP is probably a fight for the day after the defeat. A prelude to this fight is the intervention of the national executive of the party into its NSW branch.