Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners (Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 5:00pm AEDT)
Defence: The only weak point in the Roar armour is clearly in its defensive unit. They have shipped 6 goals in 3 matches against the Mariners including a clean sheet in which the Mariners hit the woodwork 3 times. The young central pairing of Matt Smith and Milan Susak will be charged with keeping target man Daniel McBreen in check whilst negating the runs of Perez or Amini. Fortunately they have former premiership winner and goalkeeper of the year Michael Theoklitos to back them up. Ironically, Central Coast’s defensive strength is its attacking style. Josh Rose and Pedj Boic have been immense in this finals campaign and their constant up and down efforts play a large part in the Mariners ability to get players forward. Similar to the Roar, the Mariners defence have conceded a swathe of goals to their opponents but then again so has everyone else in the competition. Goalkeeper Matt Ryan provided the double-save of the season last week and is playing well beyond his years. This may be his last game in the A-League.
Advantage: Central Coast.
Midfield – 3 selections in the team of the season says it all about the Roar midfield. Thomas Broich was unlucky not to be player of the season, Matt McKay is surely headed back to Asia after his fine displays here and at the Asian Cup and you cannot underestimate the impact that Eric Paartalu has had since joining this season. The man is a tackling magnet. Mitch Nicholls has even revived his once-flagging career. Simply put, the best in the competition. The big concern for the Mariners is the fitness of Patricio Perez. Mustafa Amini has been a revelation in his appearances this season but the Roar have done well in shackling the youngster. The same cannot be said about Perez. Bozanic and McGlinchey will battle away in midfield but the Mariners need a creative spark to break free from McKay and Paartalu. I’m not seeing it if Perez is on the sidelines.
Advantage: Brisbane Roar.
Attack: Fortunately for Brisbane, it seems that when one of their strikers hits a slump the other one runs into form. Jean Carlos Solozarno has had an average finals campaign but this has been largely ignored due to the barn-burning form of Kostas Barbarouses. The Kiwi international has been on fire and particularly against the Mariners. Their combination play is not great but when you look at the supply chain coming from midfield it doesn’t need to be. It was fitting that long-time Mariner Adam Kwasnik was the one to send the Mariners into their third grand final. Kwasnik has been in and out of the side for his entire Mariners career and again looks set to give way to the returning Matt Simon. McBreen will be Simon’s partner providing a tall one-two punch upfront which will target Smith and Susak’s height disadvantage. The problem is, the Mariners play better football on the ground.
Advantage: Brisbane Roar.
Key changes: Matt Simon will return for the Mariners while Perez will be given until kick-off to test his hamstring. Brisbane Roar are unlikely to make any changes.
Rub-Down predicts: Brisbane 3-1. It’s hard to bet against a 27 game win streak. More importantly, the streak contains 2 wins and 2 draws against the Mariners in their 4 encounters this season. Even when the Mariners were up 2-0 at Suncorp a few weeks ago, the Roar didn’t look like losing. Ange Postecoglou knows how to get the business done in a grand final (having previously won with South Melbourne in the NSL) and his relatively experienced should have the edge on the young Mariners when it counts. However, as this A-League finals series has shown – anything can happen. So tune in Sunday for what should fittingly be the game of the season.
