Admittedly the preseason games are not much of a factor to go by in predicting the final eight for this year, but what the preseason games indicate is the depth of the teams that have good young players to replace injuries and absences.
Come mid-season it’s how a side’s second string players perform for the team that can make a huge difference in winning and losing. Presently there are only a handful of teams that can boast the stars and depth of playing personnel that can carry them to a premiership in 2012. Geelong, Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn have shown enough last season and in the NAB Cup so far to indicate their stars and up-and-coming youngster are up to the task to carry them to the top four.
Other teams that will do well by finishing fifth to eighth include the West Coast Eagles, but will be struggling with the loss of their leading goal-kicker in Mark Le Cras. Never-the-less, the Eagles will have enough fire power in their established players and new recruits to finish well in contention. For my reckoning the Bulldogs and Saints have a number of ageing players that have one last gasp left in them to carry those teams into September. The newcomer to the bunch will be Richmond. With a quick young side led by Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt , they have been threatening to make it for the last two seasons and are poised to play finals football this season.
Essendon may rival the Tigers for the last berth but don’t have the depth to survive and less likely to finish eighth if hit by major injuries.
Greater West Sydney (GWS) Giants are the dark horse amongst the pack. With their aging new star recruits led by Luke Power and the choice draft pick young speedsters who fared so well in the preseason opener last week, may surprise a few good teams and in their first year sneak into eighth position. Mind you this is a tall prediction, but if one looks at the financial and player support the AFL has given the new franchise – With a little luck (opportunity meets preparation) they may just upset the apple cart. For the rest of the contenders its redevelopment time led by Fremantle, Essendon, Sydney Swans, Kangaroos and GWS.
Teams that may struggle all year will be Brisbane, Gold Coast Suns, Adelaide Crows and Port Power.
My end of home-and-away top 8 selection: Geelong Collingwood Carlton Hawthorn West Coast St. Kilda Bulldogs Richmond (GWS – dark horse for 8th)
This week in the NAB Cup, Geelong and St. Kilda played their preseason openers with the Sydney Swans last night at Etihad Stadium. The Gold Coast, Melbourne and Brisbane are due to play tonight at Metricon Stadium in Queensland and tomorrow afternoon the Blues open their account at AMMI Stadium in Adelaide against the Power and Crows.
