Arthur Sinodinos is widely expected to be the next finance minister of Australia if the Coalition is elected to government on September 7, but he may face difficulties being elected to the Senate because of the preference distribution arrangements by NSW smaller parties.
Sinodinos, the long time chief of staff of former prime minister John Howard, is number three on the Senate ticket in NSW in a race against 110 other candidate from 44 different parties or Independent groups.
As reported, senate preference tickets lodged with the Electoral Commission show that almost all of the smaller right wing parties in NSW are directing preferences to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson ahead of Senator Sinodinos, who now sits third on the Coalition ticket.
Even though the Coalition usually has no problems wining three senate seats in NSW, the possibility of Pauline Hanson being elected ahead of Mr Sinodinos, as a result of preference distribution by the smaller parties, although highly improbable, must not be excluded.
It is worth noting that in the 2010 Senate election, 29 micro-parties in NSW won 14 per cent of the vote between them. This time there will be 41 parties and along with disillusioned Labor supporters, could increase their collective vote to 20 per cent. For half senate elections the quota in order to elect a senator is 14.29 per cent.