The European Commission has revised its estimates about the rate of recession in Greece in 2013, from 4.2 per cent to 4 per cent. The Commission also estimates that the Greek GDP will increase by 0.6 per cent in 2014 and that unemployment will reach 27 per cent in 2013 and is expected to fall to 26 per cent in 2014 and 24 per cent in 2015.
Regarding the deficit, the European Commission has predicted a 4 per cent rate for 2013, without taking into consideration the extensive recapitalization of the systemic banks. Including the bank refinancing, the rate is expected to be 13.5 percent of the GDP this year. For 2014 the deficit will drop to 2 per cent and in 2015 it will be 1.1 per cent.
In relation to the debt and citing the forecasts the European Commission expects Greece΄s debt to reach 176.2 per cent of GDP this year versus the spring forecast of 175.2 percent. Debt will ease to 175.9 percent of GDP in 2014 but that is higher than the spring forecast of 175 percent. In 2015 Greece΄s debt is expected to decline to 170.9 percent of GDP.
The EC expects that Greece would achieve a structural budget surplus of +1.2 percent this year, which will drop to +1.0 percent in 2014 and will return to a deficit of -0.1 per cent in 2015.
Unemployment in Greece is projected to reach 27 percent in 2013 and decline slightly to 26% percent in 2014 and to 24 per cent in 2015.
The European Commission clarified that these predictions are based on the assumption that all gaps for 2014 and 2015 will be covered by measures agreed upon with the troika during the scheduled reviews.
Sources: tovima, capital.gr