Anthony Albanese’s decision to make a cornerstone election promise in Tasmania points to the state’s importance to Labor’s hopes for re-election.
At a function centre in northern Tasmania, Anthony Albanese announced Labor’s flagship pre-election $8.5 billion pledge to boost Medicare.
The Launceston visit was one of several the prime minister has made to the island state in recent months and 20 overall, highlighting its key status as an election battleground.
Polster, Kos Samara, director at Redbridge, has been pointing to research that will no doubt be sobering for Labor. Is the trend continues rather than enjoying the benefits of first term, it looks like a minority government or even a loss, as Prime Minster Anthony Albanese trails Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
Samaras on Sunday posted on X (formerly Twitter)
“Resolve Poll: The trends in NSW and Victoria are almost identical, critical states that also serve as key battlegrounds for the upcoming federal election.
“Overall, Resolve has Labor trailing 55-45 to the Coalition.
Even with a more Labor optimistic adjustment, this remains a major red flag for a government that, in hindsight, may have been unwise to strain its relationship with the Victorian Government since 2022.”
Labor is banking on the interest rate cut by the RBA last week and the Medicare announcement to provide the uplift in sagging polls.
Samaras, asks if the Medicare announcement
“The interest rate cut and today’s Medicare announcement. Will they make a difference in the key battleground seats?”
Labor are banking that the promise for more bulk billing GP is a popular one for an electorate struggling under cost-of-living pressures.
The peri-urban areas of Melbourne and Sydney seem to be where the federal election will be hard-fought. Even safe, rusted-on Labor seats have seen a swing against Labor. In the recent Werribee byelection in Victoria, it took almost a week to get a final result, and Labor scraped through by a little over 400 votes.
“The interest rate cut and today’s Medicare announcement. Will they make a difference in the key battleground seats?” Kos Samaras on X
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who has promised to match the Medicare commitment if elected which may provide a bounce for Labor, signalling the popular appeal of the promise. On the hunt for vulnerable seats, Dutton also paid attention to the Apple Isle.
Three of Tasmania’s five seats – Bass, which covers Launceston, Braddon in the west and the sprawling mostly rural Lyons – are expected to be closely fought.
“The fact there are three competitive seats makes Tasmania of interest,” political analyst Kevin Bonham told AAP following Sunday’s tit-for-tat multibillion-dollar announcements.
“They’re all a bit odd. It’s a bit challenging to get a read on where the baseline should be set for those three seats.”
The latest Newspoll published in The Australian last week showed the coalition held a 51-49 lead over Labor in the two-party preferred stakes.
Health Minister Mark Butler told the Labor function on Sunday he had not seen the party put forward a stronger line-up of candidates in Tasmania.
Lyons, one of the closest seats in the nation, is held by Labor with a margin of just 0.92 per cent.
Incumbent Brian Mitchell is not running at the yet-to-be-called poll, which must be held by May 17, with Labor pinning its hopes on former state leader Rebecca White.
White has led Labor to three state election losses but commands a strong personal vote – she won 21 per cent of the Lyons first-preferences at the 2024 Tasmanian election.
The Liberals are again running fifth-generation resident Susie Bower, who has spent more than two decades working in local government and higher education.
Liberal Bridget Archer, who has spoken out against some party positions, holds Bass by 1.4 per cent.
In Braddon, incumbent Liberal Gavin Pearce won’t re-contest the seat he holds with an eight per cent margin.
Labor’s candidate is seasoned operator Anne Urquhart, who has given up a position in the senate to run.
Salmon farming remains a contentious issue for voters in the seat of Braddon. (Alan Porritt/AAP PHOTOS)
The future of salmon farming in Macquarie Harbour on the state’s rugged west coast, part of Braddon, looms as a flashpoint issue.
Operations in the harbour are under review by the environment minister after a challenge by green groups who want to safeguard the endangered Maugean skate.
Albanese has promised to bring forward legislation to ensure farming operations can continue – the coalition wants him to reconvene parliament so it can potentially be passed.
