Under-the-pump businesses and residents have been assured there will be no new taxes hidden in a state budget that avoids an unwanted milestone.
Preparing to hand down her first Victorian budget on Tuesday, Treasurer Jaclyn Symes has pledged it will contain no new taxes or increases to existing ones beyond ordinary inflation.
“The message I heard loud and clear from the business sector … was no more taxes,” she told reporters on Monday.
Net debt forecasts over the next four years will not reach $200 billion after the mid-year budget update estimated the figure to be $187.3 billion by mid-2028.
“The aggregate will be revealed tomorrow but it won’t start with a two,” Ms Symes said.
Victorians are predicted to be paying $25 million a day by that point, leaving less money for critical services and infrastructure such as hospitals, roads and schools.
Net debt as a share of the economy is projected to peak in 2026/27 and fall after that.
The Victorian budget will forecast a $600 million operating surplus in 2025/26, its first since the COVID-19 pandemic, but $1 billion less than predicted in December.
Operating net results, which encompass day-to-day government sector running costs minus revenue, are expected to be $1.9 billion in 2026/27 and $2.4 billion in 2027/28.
Ms Symes said the government could have posted a larger surplus next financial year but instead chose to “back Victorians”.
“We know that cost of living, frontline services – these are the priorities that Victorians expect a Labor government to get behind,” she said.
Free public transport for children under 18 and statewide free public transport for seniors on weekends are among the budget sweeteners unveiled so far.
Independent economist Saul Eslake said the forecast of net operating surpluses in the coming financial years should be greeted with a “big yawn”.
He said people should instead look at the cash balance, which previously forecast deficits of $9.4 billion in 2025/26, $7.7 billion in 2026/27 and $6.8 billion in 2027/28, because it included infrastructure spending.
“Victoria cannot begin to repay debt, indeed it cannot begin to stop adding to debt, unless it runs cash surpluses,” he told AAP.
“I would be pleasantly astonished … if she (Ms Symes) forecasts a cash surplus in any of the four years to which the forward estimates relate.”
In the last state budget, total infrastructure spending was projected to fall from $23.5 billion a year this financial year to $15.6 billion in 2027/28. Ms Symes confirmed it was still tapering off ahead of the completion of the Metro and West Gate tunnels and hospitals in Frankston and Footscray in 2025.
More savings are coming from a review of the public service, led by Helen Silver, with several thousands of workers to lose their jobs. The treasurer said further moves to cut duplication would follow once Ms Silver delivers her final report to the government in June.
“We have more entities than I think we need. Helen agrees,” Ms Symes said.
