At first glance, the sun drenched Mediterranean haven, might not stand out as a major military spender. Yet, in 2024, it ranked among the top five NATO countries in terms of defence expenditure as a proportion of GDP — behind only the United States, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia, according to NATO’s latest estimates.
While Eastern European countries have sharply increased military spending in response to Russian aggression, Greece’s high defence outlay is long-standing. This year, Athens allocated roughly 3.1 per cent of its GDP to defence — a consistent investment shaped by its fraught relationship with Turkey, a fellow NATO member.
The Turkey factor
Much of Greece’s defence posture revolves around its historical and territorial disputes with Turkey. The two countries have centuries of tension between them, including wars, forced population exchanges, the contested status of Cyprus, and the complex geography of the Aegean.
“The presence of many Greek islands just off the Turkish coast means Turkey could, in theory, launch an invasion with relative ease,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
“As a result, Greece has maintained a significant military presence on nearly all of these islands — a costly endeavour requiring extensive garrisons.”
This sense of vulnerability has not diminished. “Concerns about the ‘Turkish threat’ remain very real for Greece,” said George Tzogopoulos, senior fellow at ELIAMEP, speaking to CNBC.
“The country spends heavily on defence in order to safeguard its sovereignty and sovereign rights.”
Instability in nearby regions, particularly the Middle East, has added urgency to Greece’s strategy. Turkey’s assertive foreign policy, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, has only intensified Greek concerns.
“Given the current regional dynamics, Greece has no choice but to prepare for any eventuality,” Tzogopoulos added.
Challenges behind the spending
Despite the high defence budget, analysts note that Greece’s military strength has notable limitations. The country has pivoted towards acquiring advanced weapons systems, particularly since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. However, much of that procurement takes place abroad.
A weak domestic defence industry is a key concern. Athens now faces the challenge of building up its own defence manufacturing sector to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
Outdated hardware remains a problem. Many of Greece’s tanks are aging, and troops lack training for large-scale mechanised operations. Complicating matters further, military assets are dispersed across its many islands, diluting effectiveness.
As Kirkegaard put it, “It would be wrong to equate high defence spending in Greece with comprehensive or modern military capabilities.”
Defence as leverage
Nevertheless, Greece’s outsized defence contribution does offer strategic benefits — especially within NATO. As leaders meet for this year’s NATO summit, Athens’ consistent spending boosts its political capital within the 32-member alliance.
That investment has also helped solidify ties with key powers like the United States and France, both major arms suppliers to Greece. “Defence spending in Greece also functions as a tool of geopolitical leverage, enhancing its standing and security guarantees in a complex regional environment,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo.
At the summit, Reuters reports, NATO members are expected to endorse a new spending goal of five per cent of GDP — split between 3.5 per cent for traditional military needs and 1.5 per cent for infrastructure and cyber-defence. While such a target may seem ambitious for many member states, it’s a much smaller leap for Greece.
Athens is unlikely to stretch further just to meet new benchmarks. Its defence priorities remain focused on the Aegean — not Moscow.
As one expert noted, “Russia may be reshaping NATO’s outlook, but Greece’s defence lens is still firmly fixed on Turkey.”
