Greece is set to maintain primary budget surpluses and continue steadily reducing its public debt through the end of the decade, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Fiscal Monitor released on Wednesday.
The IMF projects that Greece’s primary surplus, which excludes interest payments on debt, will reach 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2.3 per cent in 2026, underscoring the country’s continued fiscal discipline following years of reform and recovery.
When interest payments are included, Greece’s overall budget balance is forecast to remain roughly balanced in 2025, before recording a modest deficit of 0.8 per cent in 2026.
After more than a decade of crisis-driven austerity and structural reform, Greece’s debt levels continue to improve. The IMF expects public debt to fall from 154.8 per cent of GDP in 2024 to 146.7 per cent in 2025, and further down to 141.9 per cent in 2026. By 2030, the ratio is projected to drop significantly to 130.2 per cent, marking one of the strongest fiscal turnarounds in Europe.
Public revenue is forecast to edge higher to 50 per cent of GDP in 2026, before gradually easing to 46.8 per cent by 2030. Meanwhile, public expenditure is expected to peak at 50.8 per cent in 2026, then decline to 48.2 per cent toward the end of the decade, signalling continued fiscal consolidation and reduced reliance on state spending.
While Greece’s fiscal outlook remains positive, the IMF’s broader report issues a warning: global public debt is expected to surpass 100 per cent of global GDP by 2029, reaching its highest level since 1948. The rise reflects lingering post-pandemic spending, increased defence costs, and slower global growth.
In contrast, Greece’s improving fiscal position stands out as a success story within the eurozone, highlighting how disciplined budgeting and steady growth can coexist even amid global economic headwinds.
