Is it back to “square one” for Cyprus, particularly after Dervish Eroglu’s annihilation of the pro-unification parties in the recent Northern Cypriot elections?

Eroglu’s National Unity Party scored an impressive 44 percent of the vote, thus getting him over the line with 26 seats in the 50 seat Turkish Cypriot parliamentary assembly.

Mr Eroglu purports to be a “nationalist” and, accordingly, the likelihood of his ruling administration seeking an intense and genuine effort of reunification of the island appears as remote as ever.

The Republican Turkish Party, a consistent backer of reunification attempts, saw its vote fall to a disappointing 29 percent. Accordingly,  the Northern Cypriot results have caused mayhem for all concerned.

Greek Prime Minister, Costas Karamanlis, courageously and chronically keeps the peace pipe burning on this issue, a matter that is co-joined inextricably with the mainland Turkish government’s efforts to join the European Economic Community (EEC).

The EEC knows that Turkey’s attempts to join the EEC will remain irreconcilable while the Turkish Cypriots remain obstinate, as exemplified by their persistent refusal to open Northern Cypriot seaports and airfields to the Greek Cypriots.

As always, hope flickers and lingers, intriguingly, this time, with the ascension to the Greek Cypriot presidency of leftist president, Demetrios Christofias, who is keen to continue talks with the Turkish Cypriot president, Mehmet Ali Tatat, the latter a supporter of the failed 2004 reunification plebiscite that was arduously pushed by former United Nations chief, Kofi Annan.

Both Christofias and Talat – two politicians from opposing sides who genuinely like each other – understand that, as in Northern Ireland, a workable resolution of the Cypriot stalemate will not emanate from recounting old wounds, from either the Greek Cypriot or Turkish Cypriot positions.

Pivotal historical figures such as the great, but stubborn, Archbishop Makarios missed squandered vital opportunities in order to garner vainglorious benefit.

The foolish and pernicious Greek junta, in power from 1967 to 1974, played no small role in creating the geo-political climate for the equally foolish and destructive intervention by the Turkish military in 1974.

Thankfully, Talat was re-elected as the Northern Cypriot president in February 2008. Emotions run high in both camps, just as they did (and still do) in Northern Ireland.

However, genuine geo-political problem solvers such as Hilary Clinton and Tony Blair are dispassionate and will not be dissuaded from this difficult task by the expected demagogic hurdles that this intractable tragedy will face from all sides.

The Swedes will take over EEC presidency in July 2009 and they have already begun lobbying the Northern Cypriot government to give ground by opening up an airport or sea port with a view to exhibiting good faith with regards to seeking a foothold in the tentative task of seeking a resolution to this tragedy.

Unfortunately, 30,000 Turkish troops remain on the island and, to be quite blunt, their removal must remain one of the preconditions for the establishment of a genuine bi-zonal, bi communal federation between the warring camps.

The complexities of Turkish politics complicate the prospect of resolution.

The Turkish Prime Minister has publicly scolded the newly-elected Mr Eroglu by stating that “we will not be supporting any steps that will weaken the hand of the president.”

This writer believes that reunification is possible, albeit by stealth.

The Obama – Clinton – Brown negotiating team could pressure Ankara, for instance, for the establishment of two substantial British Army bases in Occupied Cyprus, in an echo of the successful geopolitical estrangement of the Soviets that paid off for the West in a “free” West Berlin.  

Foreign policy boffins have been quick to dismiss Obama as a lightweight but Obama has gone on the record in terms of expressing his admiration for the way in which Ronald Reagan was successfully able to achieve a myriad of political objectives.

The real dilemma probably rests in the conflicting views between the political elite in Ankara and the probable counter-veiling views held by the all-powerful mainland Turkish army.
Alas, do we throw up our hands in despair? Of course, not. Over the Greek Easter week end, I happened to catch a television documentary on the Greek public television broadcasting network, ERT, and what I saw was a possible harbinger of future successes, even if borne out of the seeds of grief.

ERT highlighted the great work being performed by an “Inter-Cyprus” Institute, whose essential and gruesome task it was, to identify, recompose and repatriate body parts of the deceased citizens, Greek and Turkish Cypriots, so that the families of the “disappeared” could at least be allowed to grieve, thirty-five years on, in a dignified manner.

Reunification is absolutely possible. The boys just need to put away their guns.

Theo Giantsos is a freelance writer and regular contributor to Neos Kosmos English Edition.