It has been more than two weeks since Kevin Rudd was reinstated as Labor Party leader and Prime Minister of Australia.
During this time, successive polls indicate not only a Labor resurgence but also a substantial lead of the Prime Minister over the Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott.
As time goes by, Kevin Rudd unveils a carefully planned and staged comeback. His attempts to modify, close or open up issues that might work to his electoral advantage are executed in ways that indicate he might be a changed man after all. Dealing with his own house he consults with his colleagues, he intervenes in the problematic NSW branch of his party, he announces a major revamp of ALP rules in favour of empowering rank and file members.
Dealing with broader issues, he manages to get Indonesian mediation on the boat people issue, he offers an apology to the families of victims of the Labor initiated insulation scheme, he provokes Tony Abbott to debate him face to face, he lets us know indirectly that he intends to make job security the central election issue. The political momentum since his reinstatement belongs to Kevin Rudd.
If an election were to be held now or in the near future the most probable outcome for Labor would be defeat. However, having said this, what we have all witnessed in the last two weeks is a Coalition unable to respond effectively to Rudd’s initiatives.
The Prime Minister is consolidating his position in the polls as an outsider who is trying to reverse his electoral fortunes and the Liberal National Party Coalition is just standing by watching him, without attempting thus far to either successfully stop his offensive or to unsettle the dynamic of his onslaught in the polls. If Tony Abbott and his Coalition partners do not respond now that Rudd is gaining momentum their task might become a lot more difficult later on. If the election result is left to be determined almost exclusively during the campaign period, anything might happen in the end.
There are times in history when an opposition party wins government by default. That might have been the case for the Coalition if Julia Gillard was still in power, but this is not the case anymore. Tony Abbott has to respond to Kevin Rudd now if he is to secure power. This response cannot be only one-liners, simplistic statements in relation to boat people or criticism of the government’s record.
He has to present his own vision for the country, one emphasising issues that directly affect people’s lives. Otherwise the electorate might interpret his silence as an unreadiness to govern. Of course, there is always the possibility that the leader of the opposition does not want to present to the Australian people a comprehensive alternative early in the election, because he is afraid that he might suffer what his old boss John Hewson went through when he released his Fight Back policy document in the 1993 election, in turn gifting Paul Keating the unlosable election.
Tony Abbott has been in public life long enough to know that his silence after the Rudd re-election does not make it easy for him to win what has been up until recently an unlosable federal election. It is not easy for him to attempt to set his own agenda while Kevin Rudd is still going through his honeymoon. He might also be of the opinion that he needs to sprint once an election date is announced. However, if he is to enter into this campaign as a favourite he needs to defend his Coalition’s lead in the polls now.
Once the election polls are level-pegging even for a short period of time, anything can happen, from a possible Liberal party leadership change to a Kevin Rudd victory.
