The Victorian Labor government is on course to secure a historic fourth successive term, with a new Redbridge poll revealing a significant drop in support for the state Coalition under Opposition Leader Brad Battin.
According to Redbridge published in the Herald Sun just 38 per cent of Victorians now support the Coalition, a five-point fall since Battin replaced John Pesutto as leader in December. Labor now leads on a two-party-preferred basis 51.5 to 48.5, reversing the Coalition’s previous lead of 51–49 just eight months ago.
The figures come as Battin continues to grapple with internal party instability, legal distractions, and growing criticism over his leadership. A supreme court judge recently criticised a legal attempt to block the Victorian Liberal Party’s $1.5 million loan to its former leader, John Pesutto, describing the injunction as “half-baked” and highlighting a “remarkable oversight” that wasted the court’s time.
The loan, intended to assist Pesutto in covering $2.3 million in legal fees owed to his colleague Moira Deeming, was approved a fortnight ago by the party’s 19-member administrative committee.
Voter support shifts across key demographics
Support for the Coalition has dropped across nearly every demographic—women, younger voters, Christians, tertiary-educated citizens, and crucially, migrant communities.
The party has also lost ground in inner, middle, and outer suburbs, gaining traction only in regional areas, where its campaign against the Allan government’s new emergency services levy appears to have resonated.
The poll of 1,183 voters conducted between June 19 and 30 paints a grim picture for the opposition, with just 26 per cent believing Battin and the Coalition deserve to win the next election. Labor, though still polling behind its 2022 primary vote of 37 per cent, has improved four points since April to 33 per cent.
Labor regains momentum despite public criticism
While 59 per cent of Victorians say Labor does not deserve re-election, the party appears to be gaining back voter trust—particularly in diverse, urban, and highly educated electorates.
“Labor is racking up support in fast-growing urban electorates, within diverse Melbourne and highly educated constituencies,” said Redbridge co-director Kos Samaras.
“While the Coalition is piling up votes in ageing, shrinking seats they already hold.”
Neos Kosmos asked Samaras if the polls would be more favourable towards the Coalition if John Pesutto had remained as leader.
“It’s a deeper structural issue for the Liberals than leadership,” said Samaras. “The demographic trends are a massive existential crisis for them.”
He went so far as to evoke the memory of Sir Robert Menzies, who founded the Liberal Party and served as prime minister twice, the second time from 1949 to 1966.
“Menzies had to create a new party to deal with an existential crisis – the Liberals almost need the same,” Samaras told Neos Kosmos.
Fellow Redbridge director and former Liberal strategist Tony Barry was blunt in his assessment:
“The Victorian Liberals need to stop creating and chasing noise and start articulating an economic narrative underpinned with bold and differentiated policies,” he said.
“Jacinta Allan is starting to clean off some policy barnacles and getting her government back into the contest. In politics you measure desire to win by discipline—and on that metric, the Victorian Liberal Party seems to have negligible interest in winning.”
Battin under pressure amid internal unrest
Despite the slump in support, Battin insists he remains confident ahead of the 2026 election.
“Polls come and go,” he said. “I’ve been working pretty hard each and every day and making sure the community is aware of what we are doing.”
The Opposition Leader highlighted early announcements on crime and tax policy, promising to scrap five state taxes, as well as forthcoming housing and investment policies.
“We’ve already got a lot of good policies out there, and a lot more to go,” Battin said.
“Between now and the next election I’ll be sure to build up the confidence of each and every Victorian that we will have the opportunity to govern here in Victoria.”
However, internal rifts continue to shadow the party’s efforts.
Battin is now named as a defendant in a Supreme Court case over a $1.55 million Liberal Party loan to former leader John Pesutto. He has also faced criticism for taking a cruise holiday within three months of becoming leader, allowing the government to outpace the opposition on key issues like youth crime.
The Liberals also came under fire over parliamentary allowance usage by deputy leader Sam Groth.
“I’ve been forced to spend too much time on internal matters,” Battin said.
“But we’ll make sure our policy settings are ones people can have confidence in—policies that will make Victoria a better place.”
Polls suggest uphill battle
In a separate Newspoll, Labor holds a 53–47 lead over the Coalition, reinforcing the trend toward a likely Labor victory in 2026, unless the Liberals manage to regain voter trust and stability.
With less than a year to go, the pressure is now squarely on Battin and his team—not only to formulate bold policy, but to unify the party and present a credible alternative to Jacinta Allan’s government.
