All the major national polls published since Kevin Rudd’s return to the top job show the government has much greater appeal to the electorate.
Polls comparing ‘before and after’ show a significant rise in Labor’s first preferences and two-party preferred (TPP) vote share. Essential shows the two-party preferred bump at 3 points, while Morgan finds a 7 point rise in Labor’s TPP share, with Newspoll and Galaxy at 6 points and 3 points respectively. The first preference estimates tell a similar story: 6 point gains for Labor at both Newspoll and Galaxy, 9 points for Morgan.
Mr Rudd has also moved in front of Opposition leader Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, with a Galaxy Research poll revealing 51 per cent of respondents believe he would make the best PM compared to 34 per cent for Mr Abbott.
It’s a figure that Julia Gillard could only have dreamed of. Rudd’s position shows an 18 per cent jump from Gillard’s position in March.
Despite the ‘honeymoon’ bump, the polls show the Coalition continues to lead Labor 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis and analysts suggest Labor has much work to do in sustaining the ‘honeymoon’ bounce.
Simon Jackman, professor of politics at Stanford University, California and an internationally renowned polling expert writing for Guardian Australia, said this week that Labor needs to ‘move the needle’ more to make this election truly close, let alone to give Labor a chance at winning.
“The immediate ‘sugar hit’ of Rudd’s return as prime minister isn’t going to be enough,” says Jackman, whose research into this week’s polls, along with historical comparisons to previous elections, makes sober reading for Labor supporters.
“It is entirely possible to win a majority of seats with less than 50 per cent of the TPP vote,” says the Stanford Uni professor.
“For instance, the Coalition won the 1998 election with 49 per cent TPP and lost the 1990 election with 50.1 per cent TPP. But it would take a special kind of marginal seat magic for Labor to translate 49 per cent TPP into a majority of House of Representatives seats.”
Is there any indication that Labor will improve further in the polls? Jackman says revisiting 2010 might provide an answer.
“When Gillard replaced Rudd (June 24), Labor’s first preference vote rose 4.6 percentage points (+/- 2.3 points), from 37.5 per cent to 42.1 per cent .
“Gillard’s honeymoon was short-lived. Labor’s first preference vote share fell two points over the two weeks following Gillard’s replacement of Rudd. Labor’s vote share stabilised, but then fell after the formal announcement of the 2010 election, to the 38 per cent level recorded at the 2010 election (August 21), indistinguishable from the level Labor was polling at the time Gillard replaced Rudd.”
Jackman says Kevin Rudd’s first ascension to the Labor leadership in December 2006 is another relevant point of comparison.
“The immediate boost to Labor’s first preferences was slightly more than 6 percentage points (from 38 per cent to just over 44 per cent), followed by another gain of 3 to 4 percentage points after the summer break in early 2007.
“Labor’s hoping for some more gains from the 2013 Rudd honeymoon, or even a second surge in the polls of the sort they got in early 2007.”
There are 21 Saturdays left between now and November 30 – the last possible date the election could be called.
Four of those are ruled out because of the minimum 33 day campaign period, and with complex competing factors, commentators suggest October 19 or October 26 as hot favourites.
Whatever Rudd’s date for the only poll that really matters, it will be chosen once the PM has calculated every political consideration in his favour.