A few days ago, one of the biggest crises in French and Australian relations took place. It was presented in detail by international media all over the world. What happened could be described as the perfect storm, and the worst-case scenario came true. Everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong, between two countries sharing large chunks of the Pacific and the Indian Oceans.
The French presence in the Pacific is strong, and more than half a million French people live there. French Polynesia covers the same surface as the whole of Europe. Let’s not forget, Wallis and Futuna, near the Samoa islands and New Caledonia.
Then, in the Indian Ocean, there is the Reunion Island with a population of more than 850,000, and the Mayotte island situated near Madagascar with a population of 270,000. More than 1.2 million French people live in the Indian Ocean. Despite common belief, geopolitically speaking, France is not just a European country – something that should be taken into consideration.
Consequently, both Canberra and Paris applied what Richelieu (King Louis XIII’s prime minister from 1624 to 1642) used to call a reason of state (raison d’Etat). Meaning doing what was considered as necessary to defend the national interest. Therefore, I fully understand the Australian choice to buy nuclear powered American submarines. From a military point of view, this choice seems as obvious as “sun rises always from east”, combined with a new military alliance, with the USA and the UK, called AUKUS.
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Paris’ furious reaction could be explained not only as the result of the cancellation of the multibillion submarine deal itself, representing roughly 10 per cent of the French Naval Group turnover. But especially because of the way in which it was done, by a country considered as an ally in the Indo Pacific area. The French general staff even released e-mails showing the Australian satisfaction regarding the scrapped deal just a little before cancellation.
From an economic point of view, excellent news has emerged regarding Naval Group, with a €3 billion deal to build three frigates for Greece.
Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was in Paris, visiting an exposition on the 200 years of Greek independence at the famous Louvre Museum and dined with Emmanuel Macron in the Elysée Palace. Confirming France’s key role in the Eastern Mediterranean thanks to a new Greek-French strategic partnership.
Nevertheless, from a political standpoint, the French ambassador has not come back to Australia yet and there is no communication between France’s President and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. At least, for the time being.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had said the following upon declaring the cancellation of the French submarines deal: “One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable.”
Since 1951, France has been a founding member of the European Union (EU), a common market of almost 450,000,000 people and with a GDP of more than US$ 15 trillion in 2020. This leads to an open question concerning the long-term impact of what happened to the EU-Australian free trade agreement and economic partnership agreements, turning the French-Australian submarine affair into an EU-Australian one.
Without any doubt, US President Joe Biden’s phone call to Mr Macron seems to have appeased Paris. The French ambassador will return to Washington. And the dialogue was reestablished between the two countries trying to turn the page and continue trusting each other. One way or another, France and the USA have common interests and share the same vision especially about Islamic terrorist threats in Africa and in the Middle East. As the White House press secretary Jen Psaki declared, “France is our oldest ally, and one of the USA ‘s strongest partners.”
Of course, reconciliation will need some time, but it seems to be on the right track. Despite that, in France, what happened is still seen as a humiliation. The French media used the term of a “New Trafalgar” to describe it. Referring to the 1805 battle of Trafalgar during the Napoleonian wars.
In conclusion, the Naval Group CEO will now ask for approximately US $400 million for the French submarines deal cancellation. And it seems that this affair could affect relations between France and Australia in the years to come.
Dr George Tassiopoulos is a Greek-French political scientist, who holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of East Paris. Born in Athens, he has lived in France for the past 20 years and teaches geopolitics in a business school in Paris.