Something changed on the weekend and it was not just a government. The results, right across much of this country, sent a strong message to the major parties.
Traditional Liberal and Labor safe seats, once containing huge fields of partisan voters have now dwindled.
The results in the teal seats and the seat of Fowler strongly suggest that both major party’s natural electoral support, could be as low as 25 percent.
All it takes is for the system to be stressed, and a once large vote, in any seat, gets washed away.
Without any stress, Labor’s primary vote in many of its safe seats got cut down to mid 40 primary. All it will take is a well resources alternative, that is not Liberal, just like the teals, and these seats will wash away.
Of course, such a campaign needs to offer a genuine and authentic alternative. It was not easy finding and resourcing the genuine alternatives in seats like Wentworth, North Sydney, Goldstein and Kooyong. The people power that was built within these electorates was a site to behold. But the same can be said about Fowler, be it less resourced.
My message to people on my side of politics. I want you to screen shot this. If you are in a safe seat, start campaigning now. You no longer hold a safe seat. The above Liberal seats ended up with a higher primary vote in 2019, than most safe Labor seats find themselves with in 2022.
My message to Labor factions. Don’t ship people into what you think are safe Labor seats. The book to stop this ploy has now been written. It sits on a public shelf, for all to pick up and use. Don’t believe me? See Fowler.
Below are some Victorian safe Labor seats. An example. Subject to all the votes being counted, they are less stable seats than a traditional marginal seat like Jagajaga, which has not experienced a constant decline, like the below.
- Hawke 37 per cent
- Fraser 42 per cent
- Calwell 44 per cent
- Scullin 46 per cent
- Gorton 41 per cent
- Holt 41 per cent
- Bruce 42 per cent
The above has nothing to do with the MPs who occupy these seats, commitment to doing their job. They all work hard. They now occupy electorates that no longer are safe. That’s what has changed and their workload has now doubled.
By 2025, interest rates would have gone up several times, electricity bills are about to go up, due to the price of coal exploding, and a range of other economic pressures will only accelerate, impacting households right across the country.
Safe seats, red and blue, are now just paper tigers.
Kosmos Samaras is the Director at RedBridge Group Australia. Former Deputy Campaign Director – Labor Victoria. JCRC Board Member