“The game is still in still in the first half”, I said to a friend on April 24, 2022.

“Let’s wait until the end of the second one, on June 19.” Macron’s victory in the presidential election did not ensure his dominance in French politics, like 2017. Despite his reelection, and his key position, as the only real decision maker for the next five years.

Firmly presidential since 1958

French presidents have more power than American presidents, or for that matter, British or Australian prime ministers. However, Mr Macron needs a parliamentary majority of 289 MPs out of 577 and a friendly prime minister.

There was no winner in the parliamentary elections of June 19. And now, there is no governing majority, for the pro-Macron coalition, Ensemble at 38.48percent, 245 seats, nor for Jean Luc Mélenchon’s coalition, NUPES with 31.34 percent, 131 seats, nor for Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National with 17.21percent, 89 seats and not for the Republicans-UDI  with only 7.25percent, 64 seats. It’s now time to negotiate tough coalition governments, or to hold another parliamentary election.

There is nothing new about what happened. There has been a different presidential and parliamentary majority in France three times in the past – 1986-1988, 1993-1995, 1997-2002.

It could be a conservative president and a socialist prime minister, or vice versa. It is called cohabitation, and it explains the desire of French voters not to empower  one party. France was governed by coalitions between different parties between 1870 and 1958.

What just happened could lead to the same outcome. In any case, the French public administration and institutions are capable of handling such conditions. The neighboring Belgium survived 541 days without an elected government between 2010 and 2011.

Three different scenarios for the coming weeks

First, a governmental coalition between Macron and Republicans, or Centre left, and Centre right members of parliament needed to achieve the 289-member parliamentary majority.

Second, despite a majority, Macron’s party is able to govern by forming temporary alliances with other parties over voting on different laws. What are commonly referred to as “project majorities”.

Third, Mr Macron will decide to dissolve the National Assembly and hold new parliamentary elections.

French politics is like moving sand. Everything can change in an instant. This is what makes them so unpredictable and intriguing at the same time.

The Rassemblement National party elected 89 members of parliament. Marine Le Pen achieved her best electoral result ever, it was confirmation of her strategy to normalise her party.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his NUPES left-wing coalition united (most) of the left-wing parties, including the Socialists, Communists, and Greens, under the banner of the radical left. Mélenchon did not win enough seats to become prime minister, and NUPES was unable to remain united in the National Assembly when socialists, greens, and communists formed independent parliamentary groups.

The Conservative Republicans suffered a defeat in this election, losing nearly half of their members of parliament. For the first time, they also lost the French right’s leadership by electing fewer members of parliament than Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. This marks the end of a long-standing tradition for the French right.

Zemmour poor showing was the big surprise

Eric Zemmour was the biggest surprise in the French parliamentary elections in 2022. His Reconquest, was unable to elect any members of parliament.  Ms Le Pen defeated him as presidential and parliamentary candidate.

Macron’s electoral defeat in the parliamentary elections could be explained by the French Republic’s centrist parties’ systemic weakness.

A country as ideological as France is sandwiched between the left and the right. Former centrist prime minister Raymond Barre, 1976-1981, said that they were viewed as usurpers by mainstream political parties and families. As a result, their long-term survival remains uncertain.

All French political parties must now learn to collaborate with a minority government. This is common in other European countries. And it could be seen as another step toward Europeanising French politics.

In his speech to the nation on June 22, Mr Macron sent a message to the leaders of the political parties to “leave in-fighting behind” and to move “beyond politics”.

The current political impasse he said should not lead to “stagnation” but to renewed dialogue and a new “willingness to listen to each other”.

This could herald the start of a new era in French politics.

Dr George Tassiopoulos is a political scientist, with a PhD in Political Science from the University of East Paris. Born in Athens, he has lived in France for the past 20 years and teaches geopolitics in a business school in Paris.