I’ve been interested in campaigns since I was a teenager. Caucuses are fascinating, and each electoral campaign is an excellent case study in the evolution of a nation. Much better than extremely sophisticated models and specialist assumptions. In theory, voting appears to be simple. There are three kinds of voters in a Western European-style democracy such as Greece. The ones who lean to the left for various reasons, the ones who lean to the right for various reasons, and, of course, the swing voters who will decide the winner. This is how democracy works. People can form their own views and elect their own government.
Greece’s elections are fascinating. According to surveys, there will be no parliamentary majority on May 21, this could lead to a second poll a few weeks later. This scenario could have a significant effect on voting behaviour. Knowing that a second election will be held, some electors may choose something different than the so-called “useful vote.”
This is what occurs in France, where all elections have two rounds. Allowing little and medium-sized political parties to exist and compete separately in the first round for decades. Then, in the second one, to form coalitions based primarily on ideological backgrounds. Either on the right vs left axis, or on the moderates vs. populists’ axis.
Another unanswered issue in Greece’s parliamentary elections on May 21 is the behaviour of young voters. Representing roughly 450,000 Greeks who were severely impacted by the 2008 national debt crisis and its many aftershocks. Therefore, their participation rate could not be readily predicted, or analysed in advance.
For the first time, a small number of Greek expats will vote on May 21. This is an important step, and more should be done in this manner in the coming years. After all, there are as many Greeks in Greece as there are around the globe. The Greek Diaspora have played an important part in modern Greek history, from the Independence War against the Ottoman Empire to now. Giving them the right to vote contributes to stronger ties with their homeland.
Every poll has a margin of error. Surprises arise out of the blue. I recall the map of US states turning from red to blue hour after hour, state after state, during the last United States’ federal election. In Greece, which has been bouncing from crisis-to-crisis, people no longer vote as they used to. When purchasing power is recurrently under pressure, due to high inflation on food, housing, and energy, almost everyone is upset, and this can have an important effect on electoral behaviour. Other issues such as border control, tensions with Turkey, add to the everyday issues of cost of living.
Finally, when I return to Greece, I am puzzled by the fact that no one appears to be optimistic. People complain about everything and I realized some time ago that this is one of the primary characteristics of modern Greeks. Being the grinch is a long-standing custom in this country. Greece faces many inherent problems, and there is a need for change to live in such a complex century as is the 21st.
However, great accomplishments have been made over the last 200 years. Greece is a member of the European Union, taking part in a nearly € 15 trillion shared market of 450 million people. It uses a powerful currency, the Euro. Greece is also a NATO member, forming alliances with other countries. Greek Independence Day was honoured in such a beautiful ceremony at the White House just weeks ago.
Greece is an outstanding tourist destination. Combining incredible natural beauty, a healthy climate, and superb gastronomy. This is a dream destination for millions of people from all over the globe. Lately, I had several questions from my French colleagues for the so beautiful Paxos island. So, not too bad, in fact much better, than many nations, regardless of the endless complaints by Greeks.
Dr George Tassiopoulos is a Greek French political scientist, with a doctorate in political science from the University of East Paris. He was born in Athens, and has lived in France for the past 20 years where he teaches geopolitics in a business school in Paris.