Many readers will be well aware of the work of journalist and writer George Megalogenis. For many years he has been tracking the Australian national mood and its political impacts. He has written on the story of Australian post-war society including the impact of the great waves of migration of which his own Greek parents were a part.
George brings to his writings nearly 40 years experience as a journalist covering economics as well as politics, with over eleven years in the Canberra Press gallery. For his press work he was awarded the Melbourne Press Club Quill Award for Best Columnist in 2003. As a child of post-war migrants from Greece, he is particularly aware of the social, economic and political impacts of migration to Australian development and history.
George’s latest work for the Quarterly Essay, Minority Report – The New Shape of Australian Politics, seeks to chart the changing nature of the Australian electorate and their political implications for the future, especially for the next Australian Federal election.
Charting Australia’s political shift: The breakdown of the two-party system
Pollsters are mixed on the likely outcome of the next election, with most predicting a real contest as to who might form government. George’s contribution to this discussion is welcome. While he doesn’t provide a prediction of the result, he does feel that a minority government is the most likely – and in considering this he suggests that there might be more advantages to such an outcome than risks, especially to the reinvigoration of our democracy.
His analysis draws on polling results, academic and research institute studies, political party internal election reviews, media reports and his own extensive interviews with political leaders and others over his many years as a senior journalist. He also considers the current electoral prospects in the light of Australian political history; especially the results of recent Federal election contests, as well as the major demographic changes which he believes are having major ramifications on Australia’s political landscape.
The bedrock of his analysis is his contention that Australia’s traditional two-party system – where Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition shared the first preferences of 80 per cent of the electorate – has broken down, as evidence in recent Federal elections but especially in the last Federal election held in 2022 which saw the defeat of the Morrison Coalition Government.
George’s analysis is a reminder – if we ever needed one – of the reality of constant demographic change and its implications. This is what I think most readers will find most interesting about George’s essay. It is rooted in his consideration of the implications of these changes, creating a contrast between what he calls “Old Australia” and “New Australia”. The challenge for political parties who seek to form government is to find a language that engages broadly with the electorate as it is – rather than a pollster’s caricature of the electorate.
The housing crisis and generational divide
One of the key demographic changes George highlights is the continuing expansion of Australia’s urban electorate, with up to 80% of the residents of each relevant state residing in greater Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. Queensland and Tasmania are the only states with a majority of non-urban voters.
There has also been a slow but strong shift in the nature of migration. This has seen a surge in migration from the Indian Sub-Continent, China and Vietnam from the Howard Government on. Melbourne and Sydney are home to 40 per cent of Australians and more than half of Australians born overseas. Add to this the second generation of migrants which totalled almost 1.2 million people between 2010and 2021 – a level of increase double that for children with parents and grandparents born in Australia) – creating a concentration of migrants and their local-born children in the capitals in increasingly election- deciding numbers.

Add to these are political changes which saw a historic shift by a majority of female voters against Coalition candidates across all age groups. The persistence of concern by young voters on issues such as supporting action on climate change has been added to by their being increasingly locked out of the hitherto traditional aspiration of personal home ownership. These all create significant policy and electoral challenges for both major parties seeking to form government at the next election.
The Coalition’s rejection by Australia’s urban electorate at the last Federal election was demonstrated by their holding barely eight out of the forty-five electorates across Sydney and Melbourne. As George states, electoral mathematics mean that Peter Dutton is unlikely to be PM while Sydney and Melbourne are voting Labor, Teal and Green. The Liberals own post-election report summed it up by stating that there was no pathway to government for the Coalition through solely rural and regional electorates. The success of the Teal independents has shown the Coalition’s vulnerabilities in alienating their traditional middle class constituencies in the cities, the so-called “forgotten people” on whom Menzies based their party.
Dutton’s skills as a “culture warrior” may disrupt Labor’s future campaign but this could be at the cost of re-gaining the Teal seats. And he should be reminded of the damaging effect on the Coalition’s support amongst Australia’s 1.4 million people of Chinese heritage by his announcement to “prepare for war” with China during the last election, a judgement also endorsed by the Liberal Party’s own campaign post-mortem.
Recent electoral history suggests that the Albanese Government will suffer a loss of support in the coming election (such as was the fate of the initial Whitlam, Hawke, Howard and Rudd/Gillard Governments). A loss of only three seats would see Labor lose majority government. The loss of Coalition support does not necessarily reduce the challenges for Labor.
George cites a number of policy challenges facing a future government. One of these is housing affordability. He explains how John Howard’s halving of the tax on capital gains on investor profits drove the massive boom in investor-owned residential housing, resulting in the historic decline in home ownership in Australia. The political centre is now increasingly occupied by young, educated Australians who on current policies may never own their own home. Those born after 1981 are the first cohort to enter their thirties with a home ownership rate below 50%. The baby boomer cohort at the equivalent age in their lives decades ago enjoyed a home ownership rate of 68 per cent. There is a diversion between these generations driven by real social and material differences. One commentator quoted argues that the continuance of this situation for the young destroys hope and ambition. George argues that renters helped end the Morrison Government in 2022 and they now threaten the re-election of the Albanese Government.
He argues that Labor could finally address this vital social issue, delivering housing affordability and at the same time winding back tax breaks for property investors and providing personal tax cuts for all workers. An easing of interest rates by the Reserve Bank would also provide some “clear air” for such a housing reform package, backing up its existing $10 billion public housing fund. It would also send a political signal to younger Australians that the Albanese Government is on their side.
Such a commitment would build on other positives on Labor’s ledger. They have presided over the fastest rate of job creation for any new government on record, Labor or Coalition. Their re-balancing of the Stage 3 tax cuts and other financial relief have been targeted at addressing some of the cost of living crisis. Their continuing commitment to energy transition and action on climate change as well as the highest percentage of women in its caucus and cabinet of any previous government will enhance their appeal to Teal Independent MP’s and their voters. Yet, as George argues the electorate needs to be inspired. He is not convinced that mere good management will be enough to break the anti-incumbent cycle and deliver a second term for Labor.

The case for minority government: Risks and rewards
George writes that he was once fearful of the instability that minority government may bring, with its dependence on a narrowly cast cross-bench. Such a scenario could be a recipe for policy gridlock and a failure of government to make decisions of national importance and of long term benefit to society. The new alignment of voters and the possibilities of a more representative cross-bench has convinced him that his fears may have been misplaced. A future minority government may revitalise our democracy, restoring purpose to our politics. But he argues such a result depends on whether the new parliament is elected by a politics anchored in what he calls “a problem-solving centre.”
One of the great things about George’s writing is that it is drawn from his long immersion in the social, economic and political development of post-war Australia. His assessments are not throw-away lines based on yesterday’s polls. He is not drawing unfounded conclusions based on loose assertions or stale characterisations of the electorate. They stretch beyond a few polls or even a single election cycle. His outline of the changes in Australia and their political implications are based on sound research into the demographics and mood of Australians.
For all interested in the state of Australian politics and the possibilities posed by the next Federal election, George’s thoughtful essay will be essential reading. He has again produced a balanced and thoughtful analysis, based on an extensive review of the available data, setting out some of the key constraints and opportunities that lie ahead for all of us. Well worth a read.
George Megalogenis’ Minority Report is published by Black Inc and available for purchase at bookstores or online.
*Jim Claven OAM is a historian, author and freelance writer who has researched the Hellenic link to Anzac over both world wars. He has also taken an active interest in politics as an activist, candidate and holder of elected party offices. His Masters Thesis was an analysis of modern British politics and campaigning. Jim can be contacted via email – jimclaven@yahoo.com.au