The recent U.S. debate between President Jo Biden and Republican front-runner Donald Trump has created shock waves through the Democratic Party. President Biden’s often incoherent and hardly audible performance has sparked fierce debates. His statements, at times, seemed to fade into the abyss. He was confused and revealed memory lapses.
Falsehoods about immigration, abortion, and foreign policy marked Trump’s debate performance. He evaded questions on climate change and his election denialism. Contrariwise, Biden needed to counter Trump’s lies and provide answers effectively. Still, he missed a crucial opportunity to capitalise on Trump’s evident weaknesses.
To better understand the debate and its potential implications, I talked to the respected Neos Kosmos contributor, Professor James Arvanitakis. As a Fulbright Scholar and the Milward L. Simpson Visiting Professor at the University of Wyoming, Arvanitakis spent 12 months living in a Red State, providing a unique perspective on the political landscape.
Fotis Kapetopoulos talks to Professor Professor James Arvanitakis
Fotis Kapetopoulos (FK): As a Fulbright scholar nestled in a red state, how would you characterise the current situation, particularly after what, to many, seemed a train wreck of a presidential debate?
Professor James Arvanitakis (JA) : To begin with, I think the debate would have changed little for most American voters: many are so partisan, the debate would have not changed their minds. There is the small fraction of Americans who are independents – which in a Pew Research Report is less than 10 per cent of the registered voters (though as many as a third claim to be independent most lean Republican or Democrat).
For the 10 percent, a significant number turned away from Trump after his conviction – it is hard to say exactly, but I would think that any gain that this gave Biden would have eroded.
So, we have two unpopular figures. Trump is considered vulgar, and Biden was inoffensive but seen as too old for the toils of this position – something that the Trump team has been driving. The debate has cemented this image of Biden – it will be hard to come back from it.
Trump, to his credit, stayed on script and was neither rude not obnoxious as we saw in the first 2020 debate.
I think the Republicans will be growing in confidence and Democrats panicking.
As such, in many ways then, everything has changed but little has changed.
FK: In your view, why couldn’t the GOP and the Dems find more appropriate candidates?
JA: There are two very different things happening here for the respective parties. For the Republicans, they have been captured by Trump and his faction. His ‘MAGA’ followers represent a hardcore activist base, and they are ready to activate when they see the need.
As such, over the last four years, we have essentially seen a purging of the Republican party of anyone who is openly anti-Trump or has tried to curtail his power and influence. Most openly anti-Trump Republicans are now keeping quiet or have acquiesced.
For the Democrats, it is not the done thing – to challenge a sitting president. Biden essentially is automatically nominated unless he chooses not to step down. Given his performance at the debate, many are questioning this wisdom with even the New York Times calling on Biden to declare he is no longer running.
FK: Many Republicans are not Trump supporters; indeed, there are also more effective Democratic candidates. Do you think that the Democrats will replace Biden by August?
JA: I think it is almost unimaginable that the Party will move against a nominee – let us not forget the primaries have already happened and Biden is the one they supported.
The only way I see Biden being replaced is if he chooses to step down. If this does happen, the two most likely candidates are unlikely to be first choice.
Kamala Harris has the experience as the Vice President but has an incredible low approval rating. She has failed to carve out her own role in the Biden administration and not been able to show herself as a potential president. The other is Governor Gavin Newsom but he is from California which has had increasing crime problems – something that the Republicans would cherish to focus the election on.
Kamala Harris has the experience as the Vice President but has an incredible low approval rating. She has failed to carve out her own role in the Biden administration and not been able to show herself as a potential president.
This leaves an array of possibilities including Governor Gretchen Whitmer who hails from a crucial state – especially as Democrats need to hold Midwestern swing states, given their problems in other swing states. Another is Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor. A rising stars in the national Democratic Party for his big 2022 win and bipartisan credentials. Like Whitmer, he is quite popular in a crucial state for the Democrats. The fantasy option would be Michelle Obama – who remains incredibly popular. She has expressed no interest in running and is unlikely to even contemplate it.
FK: It seems that Trump supporters don’t care about his criminal behaviour or lies — but do mainstream GOP voters care?
JA: This is a misconception. Trump supporters are increasingly the mainstream of the party. Many GOP supporters see the criminal behaviour trials as being political motivated.
We talk of blatant lies but that is not what is presented in the media watched by Republicans where the focus is on the faults of the Democrats and the corruption – real or perceived – of the elites.
FK: Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric is not typical among past GOP presidents —why has the GOP accepted what can only be described as nativist at best, racist at worst, rhetoric?
JA: This is complex, America is changing dramatically. From economic dislocation and restructuring, to changing population demographics. The 2020 census found that the US is diversifying even faster than predicted.
In 1980, white residents comprised almost 80 per cent of the national population, with Black residents accounting for 11.5 per cent. By 2000, the white population share dropped nearly 10 percentage points, to 69.1 per cent. The 2020 data shows that by 2019, the white population share declined nearly nine more percentage points, to 60.1 per cent. The Latino or Hispanic and Asian American population shares showed the most marked gains, at 18.5 per cent and nearly six per cent, respectively.
Neighbourhoods are changing and people feel that this demographic change is happening too fast –even migrants now say there are too many migrants. Trump is playing into this. Sure, there are some conspiracy theories such as ‘the great replacement’ but focusing on these theories misses the point: the speed of American demographic change means that people, rightly or wrongly, feel they no longer recognise their nation.
Neighbourhoods are changing and people feel that this demographic change is happening too fast –even migrants now say there are too many migrants
Combined with economic growth that has mostly been focused on the top five per cent and conflicts around the world that has seen American prestige suffer, the population wants things to slow down and go back to how they perceived them to be: stable, comfortable, wealthy.
They want to ‘make America great again’ and that includes protecting a way of life that they see has been under threat for decades. This combination of issues feeds directly into Trump’s populist and anti-immigration rhetoric.
FK: Finally, if Trump and Biden head to elections — what do you think will be the result?
JA: A week is a long time in politics. A week ago, I would have said Biden. I now think Trump. What happens between now and November is anyone’s guess.
Professor Professor James Arvanitakis is the Director, Forrest Research Foundation and Executive Director of the Australian American Fulbright Commission. He has over 20-year experience in the higher education sector having also had successful careers in finance and the not-for profit sector. As an educator, researcher and public commentator, James Arvanitakis was the driving force behind several innovative programs at Western Sydney University.
