Greece is getting older. According to the Institute for Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM), more Greeks are dying every year than are being born.
Ageing and deaths in proportion to births have drifted apart since the early 1950s. IDEM findings now suggest Greece is at a tipping point as the decline in the rate of births since the 1980s continues.
There were 38,500 fewer births than deaths between 2011-2013 and 111,000 fewer between 2017-2019 (113 deaths per 100 births in the first period and 143 in the second). However, between 2020-2022, the gap widened to 168 deaths for every 100.
There was an expected increase in deaths during the COVID-19, but the pandemic had little impact on the declining birth rate. The forebodingly titled The Deterioration of the Natural Balance at National and Regional Levels and Its Grim Prospects (2020-22) by Professors Byron Kotzamanis and Vassilis Pappas, founding members of IDEM, shows the increase in deaths stabilised at around 130,000 in 2023, the annual number of births averaged significantly less than the 82,000 as recorded in 2020-22.
The number of women of childbearing age will continue to decrease, and no radical changes in the “broader environment advantageous to family formation, and childbearing, are expected”, according to the authors.
World Bank Blogs confirms the IDEM data, underscoring the steady decline of the birth rate in Greece as a proportion of the total population. In 1960, the number of people between the ages of 0 and 14 was 26 per cent of the population.
By 2020, that proportion nearly halved to 14 per cent of the total population.
The most significant continued decline was from 1960 to 1975, when hundreds of thousands of Greeks made babies for Australia, who developed substantial communities and became a positive part of Australia’s democracy, economy, and culture. Of course, there have been sharp declines since the Greek financial crisis of 2010 – 2018.
However, Greece is not alone in Europe. Many are feeling ‘increasingly lonely’ and aging alone in Europe. According to the World Bank Blog, there is a ‘profound demographic crisis’–of lower fertility, greater ageing into the 90s, significant emigration, and population declines. The average fertility rate has declined from 2.8 children per woman in 1960 to two children by 1990 and to 1.6 children today, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children.
Births and deaths by region in Greece – a complex picture
IDEM writes there has been a decline in births since the 1980s in Greece however, the national average is distorted, and often widens on a regional level.
Only five locations – or “units” as IDEM calls them –were births significantly higher than deaths. In another four units, deaths and births were nearly equal. However, in sharp contrast, in eleven “regional units”, there are 2.5 or more deaths per birth” according to IDEM.
At a municipal level, “the differences were striking.”
For example, in Thira, there are two births per death, whereas in 49 municipalities, or 15 per cent of the total. There were more than four deaths per birth, and in 20 of these, there were six or more deaths per birth.
The researchers note that most municipalities – islands, towns, large urban centres, including Athens and Thessaloniki areas – showed relatively balanced birth-to-death ratios. The imbalance was most pronounced in central and western mainland Greece, Central and Eastern Macedonia, and Thrace, where three or more deaths per birth were recorded in 2020-22.
More immigrants becoming Greek citizens may arrest the decline
According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), around 906,000 foreign citizens lived in Greece in 2020, around 8.5 per cent of the total population. Up to 35,000 undocumented arrivals enter each year, according to EU reports.
However, there have been changes. Reforms of the migration laws include new arrangements on working visas and skilled migration quotas. The reforms signal a more explicit recognition by the New Democracy government that Greece, once a net emigration country, is now and necessarily a migration nation.
Possibly, easier access to Greek citizenship for non-EU nationals now living, working, and contributing to Greece’s blooming economy may alter the gloomy tinge of what are very sobering IDEM forecasts. Facilitating easier and more efficient access to Greek citizenship for the Diaspora and their offspring in Australia may also help.
