In the hit series Boss, Chicago mayor Tom Kane, played by Kelsey Grammer, reflects on a foundational mayor of that great city, Anton Cermak, who brought together the warring tribes, ethnic groups and factions to effectively run the city.

Grammer’s character lays out the secret to Cermak’s success in his understanding of power and politics.

“He understood something basic about all people – they want to be led. They want their disputes settled, their jobs dispensed, their mutinies punished, and their loyalties rewarded. To those who give them all that they want, they give power.

It’s a covenant, unspoken and elemental. And when a part fails (they understand) it needs to be fixed.”

It occurred to me when I heard these dramatic words just how close to real politics the comments were.

When I look at successive polls in Victoria that predict the Andrews government will easily win the next election, I cannot help but think that it must be in large measure because Victorians want to be effectively led in a crisis – and clearly they think Dan Andrews and his government have done just that.

They want a Premier who decisively settles disputes, whether they be within the firefighters’ ranks or the Labor factions, and can secure votes in the upper house to pass necessary legislation. They want their jobs dispensed – and there have been plenty from the Andrews government, whether in massive building projects, or more teachers, more nurses, more police.

They want those who mutiny against health orders to be punished and those who loyally follow such orders to be rewarded. To loyal members of the party, in the community and in the public service, more power and reward follows such loyalty. And of course, when a part fails, whether it is Adem Somyurek and branch stacking or opposition to the pandemic legislation, it must be fixed.

All these strong, decisive actions are underpinned by the belief that people want to be led, and especially so in a crisis. Strong decisive leadership is what Victorians responded to in vaccination numbers, in mask wearing and in social distancing. They have seen the rewards of this, and they want the decisive leadership that brought it about to continue.

This is why Andrews is such a formidable opponent and why Matthew Guy has a mountain to climb. Strangely, calling Dan Andrews “Dictator Dan” or referring to Victoria as a police state only reinforces the narrative that we have had strong, decisive leadership.

Victorians are not stupid. They know Dan is not a dictator. They know we do not live in a police state.

The opposition and some sections of the media opposed to the Andrews government just don’t get that the constant use of such words will help Labor, not hurt it.

Anton Cermak united the city of Chicago and brought substantial development. He was tough but respected and he would have achieved much more were it not for his untimely and accidental death at the hands of an assassin who was actually targeting President Roosevelt.

I worry about threats and verbal attacks especially aimed at the Premier and other Labor politicians, including my daughter. But the more such threats and abuse occur, the more resolve Victorians will have to reject them and re-elect the Andrews government.

Contrast Andrews’ leadership to that of Prime Minister Scott Morrison. I really doubt Morrison’s leadership could have survived four months away from work due to an injury as Andrews did.

Morrison’s indecisiveness in ordering vaccines early, his incapacity to settle disputes in the national cabinet and his inability to fix problems faced by the nation like climate change through strong leadership is starkly evident as he waits in the wings for Barnaby Joyce to tell him what he can or cannot do.

Australians notice these weaknesses, they see it in Morrison’s emphasis on selling messages rather than addressing the substance of issues, they see it in his appalling management of the French when AUKUS was created and in his failure to have any real plan to get submarines, nuclear or otherwise, before 2040. Australians are left with the feeling that they are not being led, and certainly not in the tradition of Anton Cermak.

It is these crucial weaknesses of leadership rather than policy differences that give Anthony Albanese a chance in the upcoming election. Indeed, Albanese has gone out of his way to minimise policy differences on crucial contentious issues such as defence, China policy and industrial relations. Even on climate change the differences are minimal; both parties are committed to net zero by 2050 and the main differences are about early versus later actions.

But to succeed Albanese must not only highlight leadership weaknesses in Morrison, he must take a leaf from Cermak’s tough pragmatic realism as expressed by fictional Chicago mayor Tom Kane, when he outlined the fundamental elements of leadership and how it relates to the psyche of an electorate that wants to be effectively led.

If Cermak were alive he would probably give Andrews a tick for decisive leadership, whether or not he agreed with his decisions.

Morrison would get a cross based on current performance and Albanese would be a question mark on the way to a possible tick.

Leaders who understand the desire of people to be led and are able to show they will fight relentlessly including factions in their own party to deliver jobs and prosperity – these are the leaders that will emerge victorious in the upcoming state and federal elections.

*Theo Theophanous is a commentator and former Victorian Labor Minister. This piece was originally published in The Herald Sun. Neos Kosmos has permission to republish.