Voters beware. Decisions will be made by these new governments that will set the stage for the next decade and beyond to such things as our responses to climate change, the security of our nation, our capacity to deal with health challenges, how we deal with pandemics and of course our economic future.
With so much at stake voters need to think beyond the appeal of single-issue, minor parties, and Independents. Voters must consider the dire consequences of minority governments before they cast their vote for these groups.
The rise of Independents and single-issue fringe parties will not merely muddy the waters. If minority governments are formed, it will lead to instability, uncertainty, and paralysis.
Federally we have seen the devastating impact when minor parties and Independents control the balance of Power. After the Federal election in 2010 which resulted in a hung Parliament, the Gillard Government entered into a formal deal with the Greens. This agreement placed enormous pressure on Labor in policy terms. By 2013 the deal collapsed. Then Prime Minister Gillard noted that, “At the end of the day, the Greens party is fundamentally a party of protest rather than a party of government,” They “would prefer to complain about things than get solutions.”
Very true, but the reliance on the Greens to continue in power as a minority government continued to destabilise Labor and was a major factor in its demise at the following election.
Fast forward to today. Despite Labor being ahead in recent polls there will be a narrowing between the two major parties in the lead up to the elections. This will likely occur at both state and federal level and will be accompanied by a decline in the primary vote of the major parties. There is a significant risk that Independents, minor parties, or the Greens will determine which of the major parties will govern both nationally and in Victoria.
The Labor Party and the Liberal Party have both said they will not enter into Coalitions with minor parties or Independents. Most recently Albanese reiterated that “there will be no deal with the Greens”. Both parties may well hold the line, technically, on “no deals” but the allure of forming government will invariably result in “innovative” arrangements.
So if the Greens were to hold the balance of power in the House of Representatives where National Governments are formed, they would likely pressure Labor to a agree to a Coalition. If this failed the Greens may still support a Labor minority Government by guaranteeing supply and support in confidence motions.
But there would be massive pressure on such a Labor minority Government to move towards Green policy objectives. Jobs in the resource Industry would come under renewed pressure and massive, unaffordable new spending on climate objectives or the Greens pet projects would be some of their demands.
The same is true of the Liberal Party federally. Should it be forced to govern as a minority with the support of Independents, or Hanson’s One Nation, or Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Possible outcomes could include scaling back on climate objectives, no mandated vaccinations and much fewer immigration and overseas student targets necessary for our economic recovery.
In Victoria a similar outcome could play out at the State election. If the Greens keep their currently held seats of Melbourne, Brunswick and Prahran and are able to add Richmond and Northcote they could potentially have 5 crucial seats in the Legislative assembly where Governments are formed.
A Labor minority Government in Victoria would almost certainly take a similar view as it would nationally – no formal coalition with the Greens. But it would be pressured to set impossible climate targets, avoid increases in housing density and enact new planning controls and taxes on developments that would stifle the state’s economy and housing availability.
The Victorian Liberals, were they to find themselves in circumstances where they could form a minority government with far-right Independents or Hanson or Palmer candidates, would face similar problems. They would be pressured by such right-wing elements to claw back important socially progressive legislation, gender equality objectives, anti-discrimination protection and climate objectives to name a few.
The most significant risk facing our state and our nation, therefore, is not in changes of Governments between the two major parties but in the very real risk that we may be governed by minority governments at both state and federal level. Such governments would face daily blackmail threats and be paralysed in providing stable predictable government.
We should not be fooled by the allure of minor parties which can make promises without the discipline of showing how they would implement such policies in an economically and fiscally responsible way. Whatever the outcomes of these two elections Australia and Victoria will be best served by majority Liberal or Labor Governments.
Resist the worst of all worlds by voting for a minor party. Whatever else they say these minor parties are committed to pressuring and if necessary, destabilising any minority government that is reliant on their support to deliver on their own narrow policy objectives. Victoria and Australia cannot afford to give these minority parties so much power.
*Theo Theophanous is a commentator and former Victorian Government Labor Minister.