Skilful politics within a democracy involves identifying and addressing major underlying influences on voting behaviours.
There are three such influences affecting the federal election emanating from identifiable sections of Australian society. Labor has seen and more effectively addressed them, and this is what will most likely deliver a Labor victory.
The first might seem counterintuitive as it involves the disillusionment of much of the working class with Labor who feel unrepresented by them.
In Victoria especially, Labor moved to gain the support of the educated classes, the “woke” classes and public servants. They prioritised such things as injecting rooms, LGBT issues, over- ambitious renewable energy targets, and expensive projects such as the Suburban Rail Loop.
These are increasingly perceived as being at the cost of basic working-class concerns like rises in cost of living, delayed road construction and maintenance in the outer suburbs and massive state debt to be paid for by higher state taxes,
This erosion of support for Labor among the working class in Victoria was dramatically demonstrated in the Werribee by-election with a 16.5% decline in Labor’s primary vote.
Importantly, however, these disaffected working-class Labor voters did not go to the Liberal Party but to the Greens, other minor parties and Independents.
At the federal level Labor recognised this issue and produced policies over the last 3 years and in the campaign to stem the flow. Such things as energy subsidies; progressive tax cuts; a supplementary tax cut; increased funding for health and education; support for wage increases and road funding for national highway upgrades.
The Liberal Party on the other hand has failed to capitalise on dissatisfaction with Labor among the working class with only limited policy offerings – a one year cut in petrol taxes, a tax concession for first home buyers and a series of me-too announcements around Labor policies, especially in health.
Despite Dutton wanting to model himself on John Howard, he has not ignited the support of the so-called Howard battlers.
Instead of voting Liberal, Labor’s disaffected working class has moved to the Greens and independents. But they find their way back to Labor through preferences.
The second big factor is the value orientation and voting behaviour of millennials and Gen Z who have little allegiance to the major parties and are drifting to Greens, Teals and independents.
In this space Labor has again outdone the Opposition with much higher support from these cohorts according to Redbridge research.
This is because Labor has crafted policies that appeal to these groups. Labor is seen as addressing wage theft and supporting work from home arrangements, LGBT and Indigenous communities, and to some extent Palestinians in Gaza. The Liberal Party finds it difficult to craft policies attractive to Teal voters.
A third major factor is the greater support among ethnic groups for Labor. Redbridge identified Labor support among those who speak a language other than English at home as 60%. The Coalition policy of dramatically cutting migration has not played well among recently arrived ethnic groups.
But the higher support for Labor also extends to many established ethnic groups. The Liberal Party has committed to matching every funding promise made during the election campaign by Labor to these ethnic communities. It’s not the same as engaging with them and making your own promises.
Albanese and Labor are reaping rewards from recognising and addressing the above three major vote influencing factors, not just in the campaign but over the last 3 years.
In 2018, wages received 52.2% of national income and profits 27.8%. By 2022 wages were down to 50.1% and profits 30%. A shift of about $200bn from wages to profits.
Labor highlighted this decline in the working-class share of national income under Morrison and also blamed him for high inflation and interest rate rises.
Labor has also sought with some success to differentiate itself from perceived sins of the Dan Andrews government in Victoria.
Albanese held the line on increased gas development where the Andrews government did not. He has presided over tax cuts not tax rises and has ruled out increases in capital gains tax and negative gearing as well as any coalition with the Greens.
Albanese has run a disciplined campaign and has increasingly gained the confidence of Australians.
Dutton on the other hand has waxed and waned. Dutton even failed to sell his one clear policy – nuclear power. Many supporters of nuclear, such as myself have now taken the view that although nuclear might be inevitable to provide heat and base load power that renewables will struggle to do, more important issues are at play in this election.
Australians seem to have decided that a majority, or an almost majority Labor government that has no formal deal with the Greens is Australia’s best option and the polls reflect this.
*Theo Theophanous is a commentator and former Labor minister.
